Compliance with the structural balance rule in 2025 – October 2026

In accordance with the provisions of the amended law of 12 July 2014, the CNFP has assessed compliance with the structural balance rule on the basis of the figures transmitted to the European Commission (Eurostat) in the so-called “EDP notifications”.

These EDP notifications are submitted by the Government/STATEC on 1 April and 1 October of each year. On the basis of these figures, the CNFP assesses whether the structural balance rule is complied with or whether a significant deviation requires the activation of the automatic correction mechanism.

For 2025, the CNFP concludes that the structural balance rule is not complied with, irrespective of the methodology used to estimate the output gap. Based on the October 2026 EDP notification, the structural balance stands at -0.02% of GDP according to the European Commission's methodology and at -0.2% of GDP according to the STATEC/Ministry of Finance methodology, both below the medium-term budgetary objective of 0.00% of GDP.

However, neither deviation is considered significant within the meaning of the law, and therefore neither requires the activation of the correction mechanism. This assessment for 2025 is final.

A more detailed assessment (in French only) can be downloaded through the link below.