In accordance with the provisions of the 12 July 2014 law, the CNFP has assessed compliance with the structural balance rule on the basis of the figures transmitted to the European Commission (Eurostat) in the so-called “EDP notifications”.
These EDP notifications are submitted by the Government/STATEC on 1 April and 1 October of each year and it is on the basis of those figures that the CNFP is called to assess whether the structural balance is complied with or whether there is a ‘significant deviation’ triggering the automatic correction mechanism.
For 2015, the CNFP comes to the conclusion that the structural balance rule is complied with, irrespective of the two methodologies used to compute the output gap (i.e. the HP filtering method and STATEC method based on the common EU methodology).
For 2016, the CNFP comes to a preliminary conclusion that the structural balance rule is complied with, irrespective of the two methodologies used to compute the output gap. The analysis will be updated at the time of the next EDP notification on 1 April 2017.
The CNFP notes that the numbers presented for 2015 and 2016 are significantly more positive than estimated previously. The CNFP therefore recommends the budgetary authorities to conduct a thorough study to identify the origins of these differences and correct any methodological or systematic biases in the future forecasts of public finances in order to ensure a realistic starting point for the elaboration of the medium-term trajectory of public finances.
A more detailed assessment (in French only) can be downloaded through the link below.